December 13, 2017

December 13, 2017

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July 12, 2018

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Early Mock Draft Reactions Pt. 1

June 6, 2018



In the following months, June, July, and August are pivotal months for fantasy owners gunning for that late December finish line of hoisting their respective league trophies. 


During this time, many owners aiming to get a leg up on the competition look towards various mock drafts in order to be prepared for the ensuing chaos of a live fantasy football draft. 


When starting that preparation, owners have to fully realize that the mock drafts are an ever-changing maze of ebbs and flows based on the smallest of details at times. 


And that is the purpose of this series of articles. While many owners will embark through that maze on their own times, the Fantasy Football Shrinks are here to guide others through that maze as well. 


Unlike most of our other articles, these will have multiple parts scattered through the off season as the fantasy landscape continues to evolve. So without further ado, lets jump in:


*The results mentioned were obtained from doing three 12 team .5 ppr mock drafts from the via draft wizard.*


Two Round Explosion


Out of everything I took note of during all the mock drafts, the thing that stood out the most was how loaded the first two rounds are so far. Normally, I would caution getting too invested in the ADP of players so early on, but baring injury, I simply don't see there being significant change in the top 24 players' draft position. 


There just seems something wrong about someone being able to start off a team with either Leonard Fournette and then follow up with Kareem Hunt in a twelve team league. Other notable combinations I saw were Odell Beckham Jr. and Michael Thomas, Deandre Hopkins and Melvin Gordon, and Julio Jones paired with A.J Green. Out of all the years to have a clear idea of the habits of your everyone in your league, this is the year. Knowing that information could be a pivotal advantage in your individual team construction early on.


Every year in the draft (snake draft format), it's always advisably to take note of where the sweet spot is. By sweet spot, I'm referring to the location where it seems like owners are able to capitalize on the most value throughout the course of the draft i.e the third pick.


Granted, some spots seems more advantageous than others, but the overall talent within the first 24 players practically ensures that each spot allows owners to walk away with premium talent.


For example, even with the first overall pick, I was able to choose between players like Devonta Freeman, Lesean McCoy, and Adam Thielen in the second round. While that won't be the case for every draft, it is a positive indication early on that first two rounds will be top heavy. 



Late Round Values


This is linked intrinsically with the previous revelation of the loaded nature of the first two rounds. That fact alone though does not mean that every draft is guaranteed to be successful.


In fact, it's the opposite. With many other teams having access to that same pool of players, drafting well in the later rounds becomes even more paramount. Think of how well the teams that drafted Adam Thielen, Kareem Hunt, Zach Ertz, and Carson Wentz turned out last year.


Hitting on your first couple of picks is just the easiest way to make sure your team doesn't stink, but it's nabbing those late round values that allow owners to construct a future championship contender.


Keep in mind, that just because there's a top heavy couple of rounds early on, that does not mean there's a surplus of talent trickling down throughout the draft.


Yes, this is a simple rule that has stood as one of the foundations of drafting a successful fantasy team for years, but every year owners need to remember that that value is not just hitting on sleepers. Value can be noticing the a run on Tight Ends and reaching a bit on a player like Trey Burton to ensure your team is solid at the position. The main thing to keep in mind is to always be flexible and keep track of the flow of any draft.

If you have specific lineup or roster questions feel free to submit a question via the "Submit a Question" button on our home page and we'll be sure to share our opinion.



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